Analysis of the Market Prospects and Development Trends of the Tungsten-Molybdenum Industry in 2025

Release time:

2025-02-07

1. Market Prospects

1. Demand-side Driving Factors
Emerging Industries and High-end Manufacturing:
Tungsten: The demand in fields such as hard alloys (cutting tools, mining equipment), semiconductors (high-purity tungsten target materials), and new energy (battery materials, nuclear fusion components) continues to grow. The acceleration of global electric vehicle and 5G base station construction will further drive the demand for tungsten carbide.
Molybdenum: The application of high-performance alloy steel (stainless steel, high-speed steel) in aerospace and nuclear power is expanding, and the demand for molybdenum chemical catalysts (desulfurization, petroleum refining) is rising as environmental protection policies tighten.
Clean Energy Transition:
The application of molybdenum in wind turbine and solar panel production is increasing; the demand for high-temperature resistant components made of tungsten in the nuclear energy sector remains stable. The International Energy Agency predicts that by 2025, the global installed capacity of renewable energy will increase by 60% compared to 2020, driving the consumption of related metals.
Geopolitics and Supply Chain Restructuring:
Europe and the United States are promoting the localization of critical mineral supply chains, which may stimulate tungsten and molybdenum exploration and production investments in non-China regions (such as North America and Australia).

2. Supply-side Challenges and Opportunities
China Dominates Supply Pattern: China accounts for over 60% of global tungsten reserves and 40% of molybdenum production, but environmental protection production limits and resource tax reforms may restrict capacity expansion.
Recycling Technology Improvement: The recycling rate of tungsten waste (hard alloys) is expected to increase from the current 30% to over 40%, alleviating pressure on primary resources.
Emerging Resource Development: Tungsten mining projects in countries like the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Peru, as well as molybdenum mining expansion plans in Chile and the United States, may gradually release production capacity.

3. Price Trends
Tungsten prices are significantly influenced by China's quota policy. If demand growth exceeds supply (e.g., annual demand growth for hard alloys is 5%-7%), prices may exceed $35,000/ton by 2025 (currently about $30,000).
Molybdenum prices are dominated by fluctuations in the steel industry. If the global low-carbon transition in steel accelerates (with an increase in electric arc furnace steel production), molybdenum demand may maintain an annual growth of 4%-6%, with prices likely to remain in the $20-$25/pound range.

2. Development Trends

1. Technological Innovation Drives Application Expansion
Tungsten: The application of nano tungsten powder in 3D printing and semiconductor packaging; the potential of tungsten-copper alloys in high-temperature electronic components.
Molybdenum: Breakthroughs in the research and development of molybdenum disulfide (MoS₂) in lithium-sulfur battery anode materials and flexible electronics.

2. Pressure for Green and Low-Carbon Transition
Mining ESG standards are tightening, and companies need to invest in clean smelting technologies (such as hydrometallurgy to replace pyrometallurgy) to reduce carbon emissions. The EU carbon border tax (CBAM) may affect the costs of export-oriented enterprises.

3. Regional Market Differentiation
Asia-Pacific Dominates Growth: Infrastructure investment and manufacturing upgrades in China and India support demand, expected to account for over 70% of global consumption.
Europe and the United States Focus on High-end Applications: Military andAerospace Fieldsare increasingly dependent on high-purity tungsten and molybdenum products, accelerating the construction of local supply chains.

4.Policy and Trade Risks
China may further tighten tungsten export quotas, stimulating overseas project development (currently, according tothe Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs document No. 10 of 2025, a large number of tungsten products and molybdenum powder exports have already been restricted); the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act's subsidies for critical minerals may reshape global trade flows.
Geopolitical conflicts (such as the Russia-Ukraine situation) may disrupt the molybdenum supply chain (Russia is the second-largest molybdenum producer in the world).

3. Risks and Challenges

Demand Fluctuation Risk: A global economic recession may lead to a decline in demand from the steel and automotive industries, dragging down molybdenum consumption.
Threat of Substitute Materials: Ceramic materials, silicon carbide, etc., may partially replace hard alloys, affecting tungsten demand.
Rising Environmental Protection Costs: The standards for wastewater treatment and tailings management are being raised, putting pressure on small and medium-sized mining enterprises to be eliminated.

4. Conclusion

By 2025, the tungsten and molybdenum industry will present a pattern of 'steady demand growth, constrained supply, and technology-driven differentiation':
Tungsten: Demand in high-end manufacturing and new energy sectors is strong, but supply is restricted by policies, price elasticity is large, and exports face significant limitations.
Molybdenum: Benefiting from the high-endization of steel and clean energy, but caution is needed regarding short-term economic cycle fluctuations.
Investment Recommendations: Focus on leading enterprises with resource integration capabilities, technological advantages, and ESG compliance (such as China Tungsten High-tech, Freeport-McMoRan), as well as innovative companies in recycling technology and new material research and development.

(PS: The above data is supported by Deepseek, and the General Administration of Customs document has officially come into effect on February 4, 2025.)

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